cruncher | Definition of cruncher in English by Oxford Dictionaries
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People who work within the ddata line. Send me a link. I ve said so, but I m going to be mistaken as spam. You need to answer two questions before paying for a service like this. What is the error rate of this prediction?
How does this compare with the probability that someone in the population would generally commit a crime? If the error rate is one in ten and the prevalence of crime from past data is one in a thousand, you now know what to do! The same is true with some of the claims being made in big data, analytics and artificial intelligence AI.
On the face of it what they recommend based on extensive churning of data seems very clever, logical and credible. Has the quality of investment decisions been any better because of this?
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Take the way risk is measured — the standard deviation in the price of a security say, a stock is used as a measure of risk. Price variation of a stock is not a normal distribution, and standard deviation is not risk! Clearly, what is measurable is used as a surrogate irrespective of whether or not it is a true reflection of risk. You can imagine the quality of recommendations using such a model. Risk modeling is no better, but since most people do not understand standard deviations and normal distributions, they tend to fall for this mumbo jumbo.
The trading strategies employed by LTCM, the fund that Nobel laureates Robert Cox Merton and Myron Scholes set up to create value by using sophisticated mathematical models resulted in the fund going belly up in less than four years, whereas Berkshire Hathaway continues to do well! Measuring something using an irrelevant surrogate because it is easy to measure is far worse than using an intuitive assessment even if it cannot be easily quantified.
Trying to measure length to a centimeter using a meter scale Another common wasteful activity that organisations engage in is trying to refine assumptions and calculations even where refinement does not necessarily yield better results. Business planning and strategy sessions can therefore end up as wasteful exercises in endless versions of number crunching rather than real business planning or strategy.
A forecast is a forecast, especially if there are several unknowns in the mix.
Intuition versus analytics: the dilemma and the balance
Using the latest data to modify plans and create continuous noise and distraction instead of focusing on the fundamentally right things to drive is a waste. I have seen umpteen meetings where a lot of time is devoted to creating and dealing with noise rather than filtering the noise and dealing with the signal.
I realised slowly that most minds are trained to deal with what is visible and obvious rather than read the signal between the proverbial lines.
In conclusion The legendary science fiction writer Isaac Asimov was once asked if science has created more unhappiness than happiness for the human race.
His response was interesting. Paraphrased it says, science has caused both happiness and unhappiness.